The Mid-Year Housing Market Update: Why Forecasts Changed in 2026

July 29, 2026

Share this article

If the housing market feels confusing right now, you’re not alone.


Mortgage rates have risen. Home sales haven't picked up like expected. And many buyers and sellers are wondering when things are going to feel easier or be more affordable.


The truth is: a lot changed over the first half of this year.


Back at the end of 2025, economists were forecasting a much stronger housing market for 2026. They expected mortgage rates to come down, affordability to improve more dramatically, and home sales to rebound.


But lingering inflation, economic uncertainty, and growing geopolitical tensions overseas pushed mortgage rates higher than expected. And because rates stayed elevated for longer, many buyers continued to hold off.


That’s why experts recently revised their housing forecasts for the rest of the year (see graph below):

So, what does this actually mean for you? Let’s break it down.


Mortgage Rates May Remain Elevated


While just about everyone wants mortgage rates to go back to the uppers 5s or low 6s we saw at the start of the year, as of right now, the experts don’t think that’s likely to happen this year.


Instead, forecasts have been updated from the low 6s they originally projected. Many industry organizations are saying rates will stay in roughly the mid 6s this year. The good news is, that’s still lower than rates were a year ago.


Of course, this is based on what we know today. If the conflict overseas comes to an end or inflation drops, this could change. But if you’re waiting for lower rates, it may not pay off in the way you expect.


Existing Home Sales Revised Lower


Back in late 2025, experts expected we’d sell an average of 4.5 million homes this year. Now? That’s dropped down a bit to 4.2 million.


That tells us something important: buyers are still hesitant because affordability remains challenging.


Higher mortgage rates have made monthly payments harder to manage, especially for first-time buyers. And that’s slowed the pace of the market compared to what was originally expected. But even though the forecast was revised down, we’re still expected to sell more homes than last year. 


Once geopolitical tensions resolve and rates begin to settle down, many experts believe that group of buyers will be ready to jump back in. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains:


“There is sizable pent-up demand that could be released into the market.”


There has already been a few glimmers of renewed hope lately. In recent months, pending homes sale have been improving month-over-month despite higher rates.


So, if you’re able to afford a home at today’s rates, it could still make sense to buy now. Because otherwise, if you wait, you’ll have more competition (and potentially fewer homes to choose from) when those others buyers jump back in.


New Home Sales Also Slowed


Builders also expected to have a stronger year. Earlier forecasts projected new home sales would top 700k in 2026. Now, economists expect we'll be just shy of that number.


Again, mortgage rates are a major reason why.


But the upside for buyers is that builders may be even more motivated to sell. That means builder incentives, negotiation opportunities, and pricing flexibility may continue in many markets. So, if you live somewhere where there’s more new construction, this may actually be a bright spot for you.


Builders could be more ready to negotiate, and that gives you more leverage to get a better deal.


Home Prices Are Still Expected To Rise


This is one of the most important takeaways from the entire forecast. Even though sales activity is slower, on average, experts did not revise their home price forecast downward.


They still expect prices to rise nationally this year.


Why? Because while buyer demand has softened, the number of homes for sale is still relatively limited overall. That imbalance is helping support prices, even in a slower market.


Of course, conditions vary depending on where you live. Some markets are cooling more than others. But nationally, experts are still projecting steady price growth — not a major decline. And that should be a comfort whether you’re buying or selling.


Because sellers don’t want a major drop in prices. And while buyers may think they do, generally you feel better about a big purchase when it doesn’t depreciate right away.


Bottom Line


The housing market hasn’t rebounded as quickly as experts originally hoped. But that doesn’t mean it’s stalled.


Higher inflation and lingering economic uncertainty caused economists to revise their forecasts for this year. But importantly, when those two things settle down, many experts believe the market will regain its momentum.


So don’t see this revision in forecasts as a sign of trouble. See it as a temporary reaction to overall conditions and uncertainty.


If you want to know what’s happening in your local market, and what it could mean for your plans for the rest of this year, talk to a local agent.

Recent Posts

July 31, 2026
Nearly half of Veterans (49%) feel homeownership is currently out of reach, according to a recent survey from NewDay USA . But many are closer than they think. And you might be, too. If you’re a Veteran, you probably know the Veterans Affairs (VA) home loan benefit exists – it's been around for over 80 years. What you might not know is what it actually covers. Three misconceptions trip up Veterans the most ( see graph below ): 
July 31, 2026
Let's be real with each other for a second about affordability. Because you deserve someone who will be honest and transparent about what’s going on, especially if you’ve got a move on your mind. Here’s the full picture of what’s happening and why. The good – and the bad. So, you know what it truly means for your move. Because while rates are certainly a big part of affordability, they’re not the only factor at play. Mortgage Rates Have Been Rising After a year or more of rates trending down, they’ve started to climb again . And, if you’re looking to buy, that’s not what you want to see. But it has happened. And here’s why. Uncertainty is the enemy of mortgage rates. And with lingering global uncertainty, ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and inflation refusing to fully cool off, there’s a lot that’s having an effect on rates. Colin Robertson, Founder of The Truth About Mortgage , put it plainly: "You can't have $100 a barrel oil and not expect inflation to rise, which translates to higher bond yields and mortgage rates." Take a look at the graph below. It uses data from Mortgage News Daily to show just how much all of those factors have had an impact:
July 31, 2026
You may be telling yourself you’re going to wait to move – maybe you’re hoping mortgage rates will come down, prices will fall, or the market will feel a little easier. And honestly? A lot of people feel that way right now. But here’s what some are starting to realize. Waiting doesn’t usually fix the thing that made you want to move in the first place. Your family still desperately needs more room. Your empty nest still feels too...empty. Your parents or grandparents still need you to live closer. You just got married... or divorced. Your vision of retirement has you living somewhere else. Eventually, life can reach a point where waiting feels harder than moving. That’s why some people are still deciding to buy right now, even in today’s market. Not because conditions are perfect . But because the life changes behind their move never really went away. And maybe that’s exactly where you are too. If so, you’re certainly not alone. The Real Reasons People Move Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows 1 in 5 buyers last year said they felt like they had to purchase a home at that time, no matter the market. That's an important reminder right now. Sure, the dollars and cents of your move have to make sense for you. But big life changes happen whether mortgage rates and home prices are high, low, or somewhere in between. And those big life events happen more than you may think. NAR says roughly 22.5 million people experience major life changes in a typical two-year span ( see graph below ): 
July 31, 2026
You started shopping with a specific mental image of your future home in your mind. Then the houses in your budget came in smaller than you pictured. That’s the reality for a lot of buyers right now. Affordability is tight. But don’t let that discourage you. Going smaller might actually be a smart play in today’s market – and the upside can be bigger than you'd think. Let’s break down two places to look where smaller won’t necessarily feel like a compromise. Homebuilders Are Focused on Smaller Options Lately For starters, smaller is kind of on trend right now. Newly built homes have been shrinking for years. According to the latest data from the Census , the median square footage of new single-family homes has been falling overall since 2014 ( see graph below ): 
July 29, 2026
Data shows inflation is moving in the wrong direction. But before the headlines send anyone into a panic, here's what's actually going on, why it matters for the housing market, and what it means if you're thinking about buying or selling. Inflation Went Up – Here’s What That Actually Means The government tracks inflation in a variety of ways. One is something called PCE – the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. It measures how much more (or less) people are paying for goods and services compared to a year ago. And just based on your own expenses, you can probably guess which way that’s trending. That’s the one everyone is talking about right now. Check out the yellow line to see how that’s spiked since February ( see graph below ). A big driver of this jump is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed gas and energy prices significantly higher. 
July 29, 2026
Whether you're dreaming about buying your first home or wondering if it’s time to move on from the one you're in, affordability is probably weighing on your mind. Home prices are still high in many markets, and even though things have improved a bit over the past year, making the numbers work can still feel like a stretch. But the people finding ways to move right now usually have one thing in common. They didn't wait for affordability to come to them. They went looking for it. According to PODS , 61% of people across all generations say affordability is the biggest factor when deciding where to move. And it's led a growing number of people to do one thing – broaden their search to include more affordable areas they hadn't seriously considered before. As PODS , put it: ". . . moving is increasingly driven by affordability, connection, and quality of life. As economic pressures persist, Americans are taking a more intentional, values-driven approach to where they choose to live.” It’s Not Just the Home Price – It’s the Whole Cost of Living Here's where it gets really interesting. When people talk about moving for affordability, they're not just talking about finding a cheaper house. They're thinking about the full picture. What does it actually cost to live somewhere? WalletHub looked at exactly this, measuring housing costs as a share of median monthly household income across every state ( see map below ). Take a look at where you live on that map. The lighter the blue, the more affordable it generally is to live there. The darker the blue? Just the opposite. 
July 29, 2026
If affordability has been the biggest thing standing between you and a home, there's a little good news. Asking prices have started to come down. The typical seller listed their house for a median of $429,500 in May. That’s 2.4% lower than a year ago, according to Realtor.com . On its own, that won't transform what you can afford, but in today’s market every little bit helps and it signals a broader shift taking place. Buyers Are Finally Catching a Break Check out this data from Realtor.com and you can see this is the first May in years where buyers have caught any sort of break price-wise. Each May from 2022-2025, things held pretty steady. But this year? You can see that more noticeable shift in your favor ( see graph below ): 
July 28, 2026
A lot of people who want to move are telling themselves the same thing: " Maybe I'll just wait until later this year once things calm down ." While waiting sounds like a good plan, there's something worth knowing before you decide. Rates aren’t expected to change much, so if that’s the #1 reason you’re waiting, it may not pay off. And there may be other things you miss out on in the meantime. Historically, Summer is one of the strongest seasons of the year for both buyers and sellers. And if you delay your move until Fall or Winter, some of those opportunities may already be fading. Buyers: Fresh Inventory Is Your Real Summer Advantage One of the biggest frustrations buyers have faced over the past few years has been a lack of affordable options . Maybe you’ve run into that yourself: You find a house you like, but it's out of your budget. You find something in your budget, but you don’t like it. Or worse, nothing interesting hits the market for weeks. Historically, Summer helps with that. Looking at data from the last few years, Summer months consistently bring more sellers into the market than later in the year. And that gives buyers a real window of fresh choices. According to Realtor.com, any given Summer month typically sees about 32% more fresh options than the average month from September-December. 
July 24, 2026
A few years ago, sellers could get away with saying "no" to just about everything. No repairs. No concessions. No negotiation. If buyers wanted the house, they pretty much had to take it on the seller's terms. But now that inventory’s grown, negotiations are becoming a normal part of the process again. That's why one of the most important things sellers need to understand right now is this: The goal isn't to “win” every negotiation. Sometimes, it’s worth meeting buyers where they are to get a deal done, fast. One example? Helping with a buyer's closing costs. Let’s break that down, so you know what to expect if it comes up in your sale. What Are Buyer Closing Costs? Closing costs are the extra expenses buyers pay on top of their down payment when they purchase a home. Freddie Mac gives some examples : Loan origination fees Appraisal and inspection costs Title and attorney fees Survey fees and more Typically, buyer closing costs range from about 2% to 5% of the home’s purchase price. So, on the typical $400,000 home, that could mean anywhere from $8,000 to $20,000 out of pocket. And in today’s affordability-challenged market, that upfront cash can be a major hurdle for some buyers – even if they can comfortably afford the monthly mortgage payment itself. That’s why more people are asking sellers for help. And More Sellers Are Saying “Yes” According to the latest data from Zillow , 67% of sellers reported paying some or all of the buyer’s closing costs in 2025 ( see chart below ):
July 23, 2026
One of the biggest reasons buyers are still sitting on the sidelines is because they think home prices are going to come down. Some believe a crash is coming and they'll get a better deal if they hold off. Others worry they'll buy now and watch their home's value fall later. And nobody wants to overpay or buy right before values drop. But here's the question worth asking: What if the crash you're waiting for isn't actually coming? Because that's what the latest data suggests. Experts Are Not Calling for a Crash If you've spent any time online lately, you've seen posts claiming home prices are about to come crashing down. And it's true that some markets are seeing small price declines right now. But that's not the same thing as a nationwide crash. While some places are going through a price adjustment, Realtor.com data shows home prices are still rising in 71% of housing markets across the country. The trouble is, since negative news sells, you’re seeing more coverage about how a handful of markets are seeing declines, than how the majority are still seeing prices rise . And that's unfortunate. It's exactly why a lot of buyers end up with the impression that prices are falling everywhere when they’re not. So how do you really know where prices are really headed from here? That's where the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae comes in. Home Prices Will Rise for the Next 5 Years Every quarter, more than 100 economists, housing experts, and market analysts are asked where they think home prices are headed based on the latest data available. And despite all the uncertainty in today's market, there’s one thing they largely agreed on: They don't think a crash is coming. In fact, the average of all of their forecasts calls for home prices to rise every year for at least the next 5 years ( see graph below ): 
Show More